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Sunday 8 July 2012

Cong, TDP stumped

Following the severe beating he received from the hands of YSR Congress, top leaders of both the decision of Congress and the main opposition Telugu Desam Party engaged in "insight" about the erosion of their traditional votes of the banks. "Congressional leaders are worried considerably because they do not know why voters abandoned in recent bypolls and it would be possible for the party to regain the confidence of these sections in the Lok Sabha elections and simultaneous Assembly in 2014.

The problem seems to be worse because the equations of the traditional caste who helped in the Congress and the TDP party to retain its traditional vote bank, even if they suffer setbacks at the polls of the Assembly have been turned upside down in the last bypolls.


The two powerful groups of castes, Reddy and kamma are no longer in love with the Congress and TDP, respectively. Kapus and mail bags, which had supported Prajarajyam in surveys in 2009 also preferred YSR Congress now.

The task before Congress and the TDP has come true Herculean in the run to make or break the 2014 general elections. Even when he suffered the worst setback in successive general elections during 1983-2009, the Congress and TDP retained their vote-banks: their respective votes of the shares did not drop the mark of a third party. But now, these two parties have come to receive only 20% of the vote of each Seemandhra.



With 175 seats in the Assembly, as well as 25 Lok Sabha constituencies, Seemandhra is the key to rule the state and the center-after the 2014 elections. The matrix of caste in coastal regions and Seema has undergone a radical change now. Congress seems to have lost its grip on its traditional Dalit followers, girijans, Reddy and Muslims, while the TDP has also suffered erosion of its base among kammas and CBOs. Furthermore, YSR Congress has drawn support all of these sections.

In the 2009 elections, for example, almost two thirds of the Reddy had voted by Congress in the state, while two thirds of kammas chose TDP. Over 50% of Kapus had voted for Prajarajyam. The Congress had secured almost 50% of the votes of Malas and Madigas (two powerful castes scheduled) and the tribes and Muslims. TDP-led by Maha Kutami had obtained a majority vote of the Yadavas, CBOs and Gowdas others. In the general elections of 2004, 70% of Reddy, castes and tribes, Muslims 68%, 52% and 47% OBC Kapus had voted by Congress, while 52% kammas had supported the TDP.


Traditionally, Reddy has dominated local politics in at least 14 districts throughout the state, followed by kammas in three districts, Kapus in two districts, other CBs in three districts, and Muslims in a district (Hyderabad). In some districts, these dominant castes share power with others. And found in successive elections the dominant groups maintain their dominance in local politics by shifting allegiances to the winning side. While the media is slow to detect the flow of persons between the banks of votes, the political class is quick to do.

Now, with many young Reddy leaders waiting in the wings to jump on the bandwagon YSR Congress, the Congress is struggling to maintain control over this group of powerful caste. SC, ST and vests are on a war path against the current government in the state of their perceived acts of omission and commission. Muslims also are not very happy with the status quo, especially the lax application of various systems for them. Kamma are also thinking twice to continue its support for the TDP.

Government policies and programs, plans and initiatives of farmers, weaker sections and other interest groups do not seem to bother people much. The uproar over the disproportionate assets Jagan and rampant corruption in the state and the crusade team Ana corruption did not matter to the masses who had aligned themselves against the voting booths in recent bypolls, cutting across caste barriers , community and class. PA Sangma presidential candidate may be a joke about a miracle to see it through July 19, but Congress and the TDP may need luck to meet the challenge in the 2014 elections.

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